Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chengdu’s airport temperature on 31 July is usually read against a hot, humid late-summer backdrop rather than an extreme-heat setting. Forecasts for the city this week cluster around highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with several services showing about **33-35°C** for 31 July and warm nights, which leaves room for a midday spike if sunshine holds through the afternoon.[2][4][9][13]

Historical July context also points towards a fairly tight band around the low 30s, not a very low reading. One guide puts Chengdu’s July daytime range at **30-35°C**, another notes average late-July temperatures near **31.7°C**, while weather services show regular rain and humidity that can cap the ceiling on any given day.[4][11][16][19] That makes a **0% YES** crowd price look hard to justify if the market’s winning range needs anything above the sort of values currently being advertised.

For traders, the main catalysts are the airport’s actual afternoon warmth, whether any showers or thunderstorm cells pass over Chengdu, and how quickly cloud cover builds before the day’s maximum is set. Live forecast products currently show light winds and some rain probability later in the day, alongside forecast highs from the low 30s up to **37°C** in one model, so the key dependency is whether the station reaches its peak before convective cooling arrives.[2][9][13] The settlement source is Wunderground’s daily history for Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, so the decisive number will be the day’s recorded maximum there rather than a citywide average.[1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.