Highest temperature in Chengdu on June 20?

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Market context

Chengdu’s June heat is usually steady rather than extreme, with typical highs clustered in the high 20s Celsius and much of the month feeling warm and humid. Travel guides put the average June high around 28°C, while broader monthly summaries show daily highs often reaching the low 30s Celsius and occasional hotter spikes later in the month.[1][2][3][7] That makes the current 0% YES price for a top-end heat band easy to read as a market assuming the airport station will stay below the hotter ranges that can appear in isolated summer spells.

The historical frame suggests traders should watch for a brief surge rather than an all-month trend. Chengdu is already in its warm season by June, and published climate guides note that some days can still climb well above the monthly average, with reports of highs near 38°C in summer periods and June marked by short showers or night rain rather than persistent cooling.[4][6][7] The settlement source is the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station on Wunderground, so the exact daytime peak at that station matters more than citywide averages.[1]

For a move in the implied probability, the key catalysts are the near-term forecast revisions before the settlement window closes and any shift in cloud cover, rainfall timing, or afternoon heat build-up over the airport. June guidance for Chengdu consistently points to humid, changeable conditions with rain common but not always suppressing afternoon highs, so a hotter-than-usual pocket would need to align with a dry, sunny window at the station.[1][4][9][10] The market should therefore be most sensitive to the latest local forecast trend, not just the seasonal norm.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.