Highest temperature in Chicago on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chicago's highest temperature on 27 July 2026 will be measured at O'Hare International Airport, the official weather station for the metropolitan area. The settlement relies on Wunderground's historical records for that specific date, with resolution occurring at midday on the day itself.

July temperatures in Chicago typically peak between 80–90°F, with extreme heat days occasionally pushing into the low 90s. The city's 30-year average high for late July sits around 83°F. Historical records show that readings above 95°F occur roughly once per decade during this period, whilst temperatures exceeding 100°F are exceptionally rare—the last occurrence at O'Hare was in 1988. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a scenario where the high remains within or below typical ranges, discounting the tail risk of an unusual heat event.

The key variable for this market is whether an anomalous heat dome or warm front affects the Midwest in late July 2026. National Weather Service forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks issued in spring 2026 will provide early signals; traders should monitor whether meteorologists flag above-normal temperature patterns for the region. Real-time weather models become reliable only 10–14 days before the settlement date, making early-season positioning speculative. Any official heat advisory or excessive heat warning issued for the Chicago area in the days preceding 27 July would substantially shift market expectations.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chicago on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.