Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s high temperature on 3 August will come down to whether the day follows the city’s usual late-summer heat profile or lands on the hotter end of the range. August is typically Chongqing’s hottest month, with average highs around 34°C and published August extremes in the high 30s to low 40s Celsius, so a reading well above 35°C would not be unusual in the broader climate context.[1][5][8]

The market’s current 0% YES implies traders are assigning virtually no chance to the event landing in the specified temperature band, which is difficult to reconcile with seasonal norms unless the range is very high. Comparable August climatology for Chongqing shows a typical 3 August high around 34.7°C, while the city’s all-time record reaches 43°C, indicating that the upper tail is possible but still exceptional.[1][3][15]

For traders, the key catalyst is the actual observation at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station on the settlement day, because the market resolves from the Wunderground daily history for that station rather than from citywide forecasts.[2] Any short-term shift in cloud cover, rainfall, or monsoonal moisture can materially affect the day’s peak temperature, and the most relevant updates will be the final airport-area forecast revisions rather than broader Chongqing summaries.[1][8][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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