Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Chongqing’s airport temperature on 4 August will be driven by how quickly the city heats after sunrise and whether cloud, rain or a late-day thunderstorm interrupts the climb. August is normally the city’s hottest month, with typical highs around 34°C and daily extremes that can push well into the upper 30s or even above 40°C in notable heatwaves.[1][6][9]

That makes the market’s 0% YES price look aggressive against the local climatology. Historical August readings for Chongqing show that 4 August has produced highs around 34.6°C on average, while broader city records confirm that the municipality can occasionally run much hotter, including an all-time peak of 43°C in August 2022.[1][4][12] For a terminal reading to land in the highest bracket, traders would need a clear, dry and persistent heat setup rather than the more typical humid and rainy summer pattern.[1][5][9]

The main catalysts are the short-range forecast through the morning and midday, plus any convective rain or thunderstorm development that caps the day’s maximum early. Forecast services currently point to very hot conditions, with some models and summaries showing highs in the mid-30s to low-40s and a non-trivial chance of patchy rain.[2][10][11] Because the market settles on the highest temperature recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, traders should watch for changes in cloud cover, rainfall timing and any late-afternoon heat spike before the settlement window closes.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Chongqing on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.