Highest temperature in Chongqing on June 26?

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Market context

Chongqing is entering its peak hot season, with June 26, 2026, forecast to be partly cloudy but prone to local thunderstorms and showers that could suppress temperatures. Historical data shows daytime highs in Chongqing during June typically range from 26°C to 35°C, though the city can experience oppressively hot sunny days reaching 38°C or notably cooler rainy days dropping to 22°C[3]. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for any specific high-temperature range suggests traders are betting on a cooler outcome, likely influenced by the forecasted precipitation and cloud cover on the settlement day[2].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, as the resolution source is the highest temperature recorded for all times on June 26[3]. The primary catalyst is the development of local thunderstorms, which are possible according to the meteoblue forecast and could lower the peak temperature significantly below the seasonal average[2]. While the hot season officially runs from June 19 to September 9 with average highs above 84°F, the immediate weather pattern of showers and clouds is the critical dependency that will determine if the temperature stays within the lower historical bands or spikes unexpectedly[5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.