Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas was hot enough on 9 August to make a sub-100°F outcome the relevant question, with Weather Underground’s Dallas history page for the day showing a late-afternoon reading of 96.1°F at KDAL and forecast pages clustering around the upper 90s to around 100°F.[2][9][11] That fits the wider August profile for Dallas, where daily highs commonly sit near 100°F and 100°F+ days are routine rather than exceptional.[8][12]

A 0% YES price is best read as a stale or misaligned market rather than a true signal that the temperature could not reach the listed range. For weather markets, the key issue is the exact observing site and the exact data feed: this contract resolves from Weather Underground’s daily observations for Dallas Love Field, not the summary high/low panel, and revisions can still matter until the following day’s first datapoint is published.[1][9] In practice, traders should focus on whether the final Love Field observation cleared the relevant bucket, not on city-wide headlines or other airport readings.

The main catalysts are straightforward: the final Weather Underground observation sequence for KDAL, any late data correction, and whether the market’s resolution window has already locked out revisions.[1][9] Recent forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and weather-history pages both point to a very warm but not especially volatile setup, so the distribution hinges more on the verified station maximum than on any late-breaking weather change.[6][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on August 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.