Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Dallas Love Field Station will record its highest temperature on 13 July 2026, with settlement determined by historical weather data from Wunderground. Dallas typically experiences peak summer heat in mid-July, with average daily highs around 95°F (35°C), though readings frequently exceed 100°F during heat waves. The specific outcome depends on atmospheric conditions, upper-level pressure patterns, and any tropical systems that might influence regional weather in early July.

Historical precedent shows Dallas has recorded temperatures above 105°F on multiple occasions during July, most recently in 2023 when the city experienced an extended heat dome. July 2019 saw a high of 100°F on the 13th specifically, whilst July 2011 peaked at 103°F during an exceptional drought period. These comparables suggest the market's current 0% probability for certain temperature ranges may reflect either extreme confidence in a cooler-than-average outcome or a settlement structure where the highest likely range carries minimal implied probability.

Traders should monitor National Weather Service forecasts issued in early July, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings for the Dallas–Fort Worth region. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in August and September, but tropical activity in early July could introduce moisture and cloud cover that suppresses afternoon temperatures. Long-range climate models from NOAA become more reliable approximately two weeks before the settlement date, offering traders updated guidance on whether high-pressure systems will dominate the region during mid-July.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.