Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Dallas recorded its peak July 16 temperature at 88–89°F in recent comparable years, aligning with the market’s current 100% probability for that range and rendering the 0% YES chance for lower outcomes consistent with historical norms. Wunderground data for Dallas Love Field (KDAL) shows July 16 highs have rarely dipped below 85°F since 2020, with only one instance in the past decade falling to 77°F or below, a statistical outlier that explains the crowd’s near-total dismissal of cooler scenarios [1].

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service’s 7-day forecast for the Dallas–Fort Worth metroplex, which typically stabilises by mid-July and offers the earliest reliable signal for extreme heat deviations. A sudden shift in the upper-level ridge pattern or an unexpected influx of Gulf moisture could push temperatures above 90°F, though such events are uncommon in this period. The settlement source—Wunderground’s daily max for KDAL—will lock at 12:00 UTC on 16 July 2026, so any pre-settlement heat advisories or model updates from NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center warrant close attention as potential catalysts for probability shifts.

Sources: 1

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Dallas on July 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.