Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou is set to face a hot, humid summer day, with the forecast range for late July clustering around the low-to-mid 30s Celsius and some models pushing towards 37°C over the period. That matters because the market settles on the *highest* temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station on the day, so the relevant question is not the average but whether the station gets a brief surge above the day’s broader expectation.[1][3][4]

The 0% crowd-implied probability looks very low against normal July conditions. Guangzhou’s July climate is typically hot and wet, with average daytime highs around 32–34°C, heavy rainfall common, and humidity high enough to support sticky, unstable afternoons.[3][4] Forecast services also point to temperatures around 33°C in the immediate run-up, with some periods reaching 37°C, which suggests that a reading in the market’s relevant temperature bands is ordinary rather than exceptional.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are whether convective rain or cloud cover suppresses heating, and whether any late-morning or early-afternoon break in cloud allows a higher airport reading before the 12:00Z settlement window closes. The most useful inputs are the airport station’s day-of observations on Wunderground, plus any last-minute forecast shifts in rainfall timing, since July rain in Guangzhou is frequent and can quickly cap the daily maximum even when the broader forecast looks hot.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 27?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.