Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Guangzhou’s end-of-July heat profile is normally strong enough that a **single-afternoon spike** can decide this market, but the current 0% YES price still implies the crowd sees no realistic path to an exceptional reading. July in Guangzhou is typically hot and humid, with average highs around **32-33°C** and historical daily highs commonly landing in the low-to-mid 30s, while the city’s climate record shows July as the hottest month on average.[3][5][15] That matters because the market resolves on the **highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station** during the full day, so brief breaks in cloud cover or a delayed peak after midday can matter more than the morning feel.[10]

Comparable late-July cases suggest that very hot outcomes are plausible but not routine. Historical July data for Guangzhou includes days reaching the **mid-30s Celsius**, and broader climate summaries show that highs near **34-37°C** are within the usual summer envelope, with extremes above **38°C** possible in the city’s climate record.[2][3][18] In practical terms, a 0% YES line looks like a signal that traders are treating this as a near-certainty against the market’s upper temperature band rather than as a call on whether it will be warm at all.[1][5]

The key catalyst is the day’s actual weather evolution at Baiyun Airport: cloud cover, rain bands, and the timing of any afternoon heating will determine whether the station’s peak stays near the low 30s or pushes into the hotter ranges that would threaten the upper bands.[10][18] There are no team absences or coaching changes in a weather market, so the trader watchlist is mainly forecast guidance and the observed hourly trend into the settlement window, with any fresh convective rain or overcast conditions the main reason to expect a softer high.[1][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

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FAQ

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