Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27?

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Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak heat at Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport on 27 June 2026, where the market currently assigns zero probability to temperatures falling at or below 27°C. This 0% YES stance aligns with historical patterns: June in Guangzhou is intensely hot and humid, with average highs between 32°C and 33°C and a recorded maximum of 36.6°C, making sub-27°C conditions exceptionally rare for this month[2][6]. Recent Polymarket outcomes for 25 and 26 June show crowds confidently pricing 35°C and 33°C respectively, reinforcing that the market expects temperatures well above the 27°C threshold[1][3].

Traders should monitor Wunderground’s hourly updates for the Baiyun station as the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, since sudden heavy storms or typhoon activity—common in June—could temporarily suppress peak temperatures[2]. While the subtropical high-pressure system typically drives strong heat, the region’s average June rainfall of 276–280 mm means downpours remain a key dependency that could alter the daily maximum[2][6]. No official weather announcements are expected before noon, so the primary catalyst is the live temperature feed itself, which will determine whether the 33°C–35°C range prevails or if an unexpected storm pushes the peak lower[4][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.