Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4?

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Market context

Guangzhou's highest temperature on 4 June 2026 will be measured at Baiyun International Airport Station, the city's official weather observation point. Early June sits within Guangzhou's pre-monsoon transition period, when daily highs typically range from 28°C to 34°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement relies on Wunderground's historical data feed from this specific station, which records intraday temperature fluctuations across all daylight and evening hours.

Comparable June conditions from recent years show considerable variability. In June 2023, Guangzhou recorded a peak of 35.1°C; in June 2022, the maximum reached 34.8°C. However, June 2021 saw highs of only 32.5°C, demonstrating that cooler outcomes remain plausible depending on cloud cover, wind patterns, and whether subtropical high-pressure systems dominate the region. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of below-average temperatures or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket the market offers.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in late May and early June, which typically provide 10-day outlooks for Guangzhou. Tropical cyclone activity in the South China Sea during early June can suppress temperatures significantly, whilst clear skies and weak wind conditions favour higher readings. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 4 June, though Baiyun's highest temperature is usually recorded in early afternoon local time, allowing traders to adjust positions based on morning weather observations.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Guangzhou on June 4? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.