Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s temperature on 1 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s **daily maximum** reading in Celsius, and the market only resolves once the official daily extract is published. August is normally one of the city’s hottest months: the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 1 August shows a **mean maximum of 31.6°C**, with average humidity still high, which makes low-30s readings the baseline rather than an outlier.[1]

That history helps explain why the current 0% implied probability looks disconnected from climatology. Recent Observatory summaries show Hong Kong has repeatedly reached the mid-30s in August, including **35.4°C on 5 August 2024** and **34.4°C on 10 August 2025**, both of which were the highest temperatures of their respective months.[7][14] The Observatory also described 2024 as an “exceptionally hot August”, reinforcing that a result in the low-to-mid 30s is well within recent experience.[7]

For traders, the key catalysts are not team news but the weather set-up: tropical disturbances, rain bands, and the position of the subtropical ridge will drive whether the city peaks around the seasonal norm or pushes into hotter territory. The Hong Kong Observatory’s current weather updates and the final August daily extract are the decisive dependencies, while any official warnings or storm-related disruption can cap daytime heating and lower the chance of an extreme maximum.[3][7]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 1?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.