Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is set for a very hot day, with the Hong Kong Observatory’s nine-day forecast calling for *mainly fine* conditions and temperatures of **30–36°C** on 10 August, while other forecasters put the city in the mid-30s Celsius with highs around 35–38°C. That makes the market’s 0% YES probability look difficult to square with the live weather setup, because the resolution source is the Observatory’s final daily maximum, not an airport reading or a “feels like” figure.[2][10][15]

The historical frame is straightforward: August in Hong Kong is normally hot and humid, with average daytime temperatures around **31°C** and the month often bringing several days of rain, but individual days can still surge well into the mid-30s, especially when skies are bright and winds are light to moderate.[16][19] The Observatory’s own archive shows 10 August 2025 reaching **34.4°C** at the Observatory, which is a useful comparator for how quickly a mid-August day can top out once morning cloud clears.[13]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly updates and any very hot weather warning, because those signal whether the day is tracking towards the upper end of the forecast range. Early readings already showed the city around 29–31°C with a very hot weather warning in force, and the morning forecast remained hot enough to leave room for a later peak near 36°C if sunshine builds after midday.[15][2] The market cannot settle until the Hong Kong Observatory publishes the finalized Daily Extract for 10 August, so late-day cloud, showers, or a coastal breeze are the main risks to a higher print.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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UK Frequently Asked Questions

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