Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 16 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature reached in the territory that day, measured in degrees Celsius to one decimal place. This market resolves based on the official "Absolute Daily Max" figure published in the Observatory's Daily Extract once the data is finalised and made publicly available.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are among the year's most consistent. Historical records show daily maxima in mid-August typically range between 31°C and 34°C, with the territory's all-time August high of 36.1°C set in 1967. Over the past decade, 16 August has seen maxima of 32.1°C (2023), 33.2°C (2022), and 31.8°C (2021). The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature range as unlikely, though the settlement mechanism requires the Observatory's published figure to fall within a defined bracket for any resolution category to trigger.

The key dependency is the Hong Kong Observatory's publication schedule for Daily Extract data, which typically becomes available within days of the observation date. Tropical cyclone activity during mid-August could materially shift temperature patterns; the 2023 Pacific typhoon season saw multiple systems affect the region during this period. Traders should monitor seasonal forecasts from the Observatory and regional meteorological agencies in the weeks preceding 16 August 2026, as any unusual atmospheric conditions or weather systems could push temperatures outside typical August ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

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