Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong's peak daily temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured by the Hong Kong Observatory's official recording station and resolved to the nearest 0.1°C. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, though the Observatory typically publishes its daily maximum temperature data within 24 hours of the observation period ending.

August is Hong Kong's hottest and most humid month, with daily maxima typically ranging between 31°C and 34°C. Historical data from the Observatory shows that temperatures exceeding 35°C occur occasionally but remain uncommon for mid-August; the all-time August record stands at 36.3°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that sits well above the seasonal norm, making historical frequency distributions critical context for calibrating expectations around extreme heat scenarios.

The primary catalyst affecting August 2026 temperatures will be tropical cyclone activity and monsoon patterns across the Western Pacific. The Observatory issues seasonal outlooks in June and July that incorporate sea-surface temperature anomalies and atmospheric circulation forecasts; any significant deviation from typical conditions during late summer could shift temperature distributions materially. Real-time tracking of upper-atmosphere pressure systems and sea temperatures in the weeks preceding mid-August will provide traders with updated signals on whether conditions favour above or below-average heat for that specific date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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