Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s reading for 3 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)**, not by any intraday market snapshot. The benchmark is the station high for the day, published to one decimal place, so the settlement hinges on the final daily extract rather than a round-number midday temperature.[12][10]

Historically, early August often sits in the low 30s in Hong Kong, with the Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal maximum for 3 August at **31.4°C**.[4] That said, the city can swing materially higher under hot, subsiding air masses: 3 August 2024 reached **35.1°C** at the Observatory, and the same month later peaked at **35.4°C** on 5 August during an exceptionally hot spell.[1][5] Against that backdrop, a crowd-implied **0% YES** for a specific temperature band signals that traders are leaning heavily towards a different range rather than an outright cool-day outcome.[2]

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s morning and afternoon forecasts, any tropical cyclone or monsoon-related changes in cloud and rain, and whether sunshine breaks through enough to lift the daily maximum. At 2 p.m. on 3 August 2025, the Observatory still reported 30°C at its station and 29–30°C across much of the territory, showing how quickly the eventual high can depend on late-day heating and local cloud cover.[10] Recent reporting also suggests the current spell has been capped by showers and extensive cloud, with market commentary pointing to 27–28°C as the favoured band unless the forecast shifts materially.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 3?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.