Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s observatory reading on 6 August is the settlement point, so the market is really about whether the day’s **absolute maximum** lands in a familiar early-August band or pushes into the hotter tail. The Hong Kong Observatory’s climatology puts the 6 August mean maximum at **31.6°C**, with average conditions still firmly in midsummer heat, and AccuWeather’s current August view shows nearby days clustered around **30–32°C** rather than extreme values.[2][1]

The 0% crowd-implied price looks hard to square with recent comparables. Hong Kong has already produced markedly hotter spells in recent summers, including an exceptionally hot August in 2024, when the city’s mean daily maximum reached **32.3°C**, and a 2025 run of record-breaking heat that included a **35.6°C** June maximum.[6][20] More recently, the city hit **34.6°C** on one of this year’s hottest days so far, underlining that high-30s-adjacent outcomes are not impossible even if they remain less common than low-30s results.[12]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Hong Kong Observatory’s short-range updates, the day’s actual cloud, rain and wind regime, and whether any tropical disturbance changes the thermal profile before the afternoon peak. The Observatory’s live weather pages and daily extract are the decisive inputs for resolution, while the forecast pattern on 5–6 August already points to warm conditions around **30–31°C** with rain chances in the mix, which can cap the maximum if cloud and showers build earlier than expected.[3][1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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