Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory’s reading on 8 August will settle this market, with the key figure being the day’s **Absolute Daily Max** in degrees Celsius once the Daily Extract is finalised. Early-day conditions matter because temperatures in Hong Kong often rise sharply after dawn; at 3 a.m. the Observatory was already at 29°C, with several urban and suburban stations between 27°C and 30°C, which leaves room for a hot afternoon if sunshine persists.[7]

For context, Hong Kong has a history of extreme August heat. The Observatory’s all-time high of 36.3°C was set on 8 August 2015, and the month can still produce notably high maxima even when the broader seasonal average is lower.[1][6] Recent climatology also points to sustained warmth in August: the Observatory’s 2024 monthly summary described that month as exceptionally hot, with a mean daily maximum of 32.3°C, 1.0°C above normal.[18] Against that backdrop, a crowd-implied 0% chance of the top outcome suggests the market is currently pricing in a reading well below the most severe historical extremes.

The main catalysts are the Observatory’s same-day forecast updates, any thunderstorm or typhoon warnings, and the eventual Daily Extract publication on the climatology page, since those determine whether cloud, rain, or sea-breeze effects suppress the afternoon peak.[3][15] AccuWeather’s Hong Kong August outlook also shows a very warm day on 8 August, with a forecast high near 36°C, which is consistent with the market staying focused on whether the city reaches the upper end of its summer range.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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