Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 9?

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Market context

Hong Kong’s hottest reading on 9 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s **Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)**, not by a citywide average, so the key question is how high the Observatory’s own station climbs before the daily extract is finalised. At 4 a.m. on the day, the Observatory was already reporting **31°C**, which leaves room for a notably hot afternoon if sunshine and weak ventilation persist.[10]

The current **0% YES** price is best read against a seasonal baseline: the August normal maximum at Hong Kong on 9 August is about **31.6°C**, according to the Observatory’s climate normals, while outside forecasters have been projecting a much hotter day, with AccuWeather showing a **100°F** high for Hong Kong/Sha Tin and timeanddate pointing to a **96°F** peak.[6][1][9] Recent local reporting also shows Hong Kong has already been producing very hot readings this month, with one official update on 8 August describing the year’s hottest day so far at **34.7°C** at the Observatory and **37°C** in some outlying areas.[15][4]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly readings through the afternoon, any change in the regional forecast issued by the HKO, and whether cloud, showers, or a sea-breeze shift cap the peak before late afternoon.[2][10] The market cannot settle until the Observatory publishes the final daily extract, so the live temperature path matters more than early-morning readings; as of the latest forecast snapshots, the market has been pricing a broad range of possible outcomes rather than a single consensus number.[2][7][19]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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