Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong is currently experiencing mid-July heat, with today’s conditions showing scattered clouds and temperatures hovering around 81°F (27.2°C) as of 11:05 UTC, while the month historically delivers the region’s peak warmth. The market’s 0% YES probability implies the crowd expects the highest temperature on 12 July 2026 to fall outside the defined resolution range, likely below the threshold that would trigger a YES outcome.

Historically, July is Hong Kong’s hottest month, averaging 89°F (31.7°C) and frequently exceeding 35°C; July 2022 was the hottest month since records began in 1884, with daily maxima reaching 35.7°C [1][2]. Comparable years like 2020 and 2021 also saw extreme July heat, suggesting that a sub-threshold maximum on 12 July would be an outlier rather than the norm, making the current 0% probability appear unusually dismissive of typical climatic patterns.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s “Daily Extract” for 12 July 2026, which will publish the official “Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)” once finalized [9]. The settlement depends entirely on this data release, which typically occurs within 24–48 hours after the date. No weather announcements or forecasts from AccuWeather or other third parties override the Observatory’s official figure, so the key catalyst is the timely publication of the climatological record [3][10].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.