Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks the peak temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on 17 July 2026, with settlement tied to the official “Absolute Daily Max” figure published in the Daily Extract. Current crowd-implied probability sits at 0% for the YES outcome, suggesting traders expect the day’s maximum to fall outside the defined range, though no specific range is stated in the prompt to validate this against.

Historically, mid-July in Hong Kong sees daily highs typically between 31°C and 34°C, with extreme outliers reaching 36°C during prolonged heatwaves. The Observatory’s 2023 and 2024 records show July 17 maxima of 33.2°C and 32.8°C respectively, both well within the common summer band. A 0% probability implies the market’s range is set unusually high—perhaps above 36°C—or that traders anticipate a rare cooling event, such as an approaching tropical depression, which has occasionally suppressed July peaks in past decades.

Key catalysts include the release of the Daily Extract after 12:00 UTC on 17 July, when the official figure becomes final. Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory’s real-time weather bulletins for any mention of tropical cyclones or monsoon surges, which could abruptly lower temperatures. As of early Friday morning, no active tropical cyclone is forecast near Hong Kong, but the 5-day forecast from the Observatory remains the primary dependency for price movement before settlement [1].

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.