Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s late-July heat has already been well established, with the Observatory saying the city has just come through its hottest July on record, while the long-run July record for the Observatory station remains 35.7°C. That makes the market’s current 0% YES price look aggressive unless 31 July delivers another exceptional spike, because the relevant hurdle is not a generic summer high but the day’s single highest reading, which can still be lifted by a brief afternoon surge. [1][3]

Comparable July cases show how quickly the number can move. In 2023, the Observatory station reached 36.1°C on 27 July, one of the highest monthly absolute maxima on record for July, but the final day of that month was instead showery with thunderstorms in the small hours, underlining how a hot spell can be interrupted before the daily peak is locked in. Historical July highs around the mid-30s are rare but not unprecedented, so the key question is whether conditions on 31 July resemble a peak-heat day or a more typical humid summer afternoon. [8][3]

For traders, the important catalysts are the Observatory’s hourly readings through the afternoon and the eventual daily extract, since the market cannot settle until the final “Absolute Daily Max” is published. On days when the city is already running hot, the main dependencies are cloud cover, showers, and any change in the regional weather pattern that trims peak afternoon heating; recent Observatory reporting has shown how quickly local temperatures can vary by district even when the citywide reading is near 31-33°C. [7][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 31?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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