Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong’s peak temperature on 15 June will be judged from the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily maximum reading, and the market is set up around a single warm-season datapoint rather than a broader monthly average. The current 0% YES implies traders do not expect the highest recorded temperature to fall into the YES range, even though June is normally one of the city’s hottest months, with the Observatory’s own seasonal outlook for June to August 2026 calling for **above-normal temperature** across the period.[1]

That framing matters because Hong Kong’s summer climate is typically hot and humid, with tourist-facing weather guidance putting June daytime highs around the low 30s Celsius and forecast services showing June daily highs commonly in the high 80s to mid-90s Fahrenheit, roughly 31-34°C.[2][4] The Observatory’s current tourist weather page also shows recent readings near 30°C with a maximum forecast of 32°C, which is consistent with a season where one or two isolated hot spikes can decide a temperature bucket market.[3] In other words, the relevant comparison is not whether June is warm, but whether 15 June lands in the upper tail of an already hot distribution.[1][2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the Observatory’s short-range forecasts, any tropical-weather developments, and whether cloud, rain or a change in airflow suppresses the daytime peak on the settlement date. The market cannot resolve until the Observatory publishes the final daily extract, so late revisions to the daily maximum — or any weather system that materially shifts the afternoon temperature profile — are what matter most.[8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 15? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.