Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 16?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in degrees Celsius on 16 June 2026, with settlement determined by the absolute daily maximum published in their Daily Extract climate data. The market currently shows zero probability, suggesting traders expect either extremely cool conditions or uncertainty about data availability on the settlement date.

Hong Kong's June temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with historical daily maxima rarely exceeding 36°C during this month. The Observatory's records from recent Junes show typical highs clustering around 31–33°C, though occasional heat waves have pushed readings above 35°C. Comparing to June 2015, when Hong Kong experienced a daily maximum of 35.1°C, provides a benchmark for understanding the upper tail of plausible outcomes. The zero probability reading suggests the market may be pricing in technical barriers—such as delayed data publication beyond the settlement window—rather than meteorological extremes.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's operational status and publication schedule leading into mid-June 2026, as any disruption to their daily reporting could prevent timely resolution. Seasonal weather patterns, including the onset of the southwest monsoon and potential tropical systems, will influence actual temperatures. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 16 June, creating a hard deadline for the Observatory's data release; any publication delays beyond this point would leave the market unresolved. Historical precedent shows the Observatory typically publishes daily climate summaries within 24 hours of observation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.