Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26?

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Market context

Hong Kong will experience its peak daily heat on 26 June 2026, with the Hong Kong Observatory recording the absolute maximum temperature in degrees Celsius for that specific date. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a "YES" outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to fall outside the specific range being traded, likely due to the high baseline of June heat in the region.

Historical data frames this expectation clearly: June 2025 was notably hotter and drier than usual, driven by a strong subtropical ridge, with a monthly mean maximum of 31.5°C and one of the seventh-highest records for the month[1]. Average June temperatures consistently hover between 28°C and 32°C, while July and August typically bring even higher peaks around 32°C[2][4]. Given that 2025 was the city’s sixth warmest year overall, breaking multiple records, a cool June in 2026 would be an extreme outlier rather than a standard occurrence[3].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of the "Daily Extract" data from the Hong Kong Observatory, which is the sole resolution source for this market[6]. The forecast for June 2026 already indicates daily highs ranging from 85°F to 92°F (approximately 29°C to 33°C), with recent historical data showing a peak of 92.3°F on 24 June 2026[5][8]. Any significant shift in the subtropical ridge or the arrival of a typhoon before the settlement window on 26 June at 12:00 UTC could alter the final recorded maximum, though current trends point firmly toward sustained high heat.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.