Highest temperature in Hong Kong on June 4?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 4 June 2026, measured to one decimal place in degrees Celsius. This measurement forms the basis for resolving which temperature range bracket the day's peak will fall into. The Observatory's official daily extract, published after the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC, provides the authoritative figure used for settlement.

June temperatures in Hong Kong typically range between 28°C and 34°C, with the territory experiencing early summer conditions and occasional pre-monsoon heat spikes. Historical data from the Observatory shows that extreme heat days—those exceeding 35°C—occur infrequently in early June, though they are not unprecedented. The current 0% probability assigned to the market suggests traders are pricing in expectations aligned with seasonal norms rather than anomalous heat events.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any published advisories regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns in the weeks preceding 4 June 2026. The South China Sea monsoon transition period and any tropical cyclone activity in the region could materially shift temperature outcomes. Real-time weather station data and medium-range forecasts from the Observatory become increasingly reliable from late May onwards, providing the most actionable signals for adjusting positions as the settlement date approaches.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.