Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 22?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Hong Kong Observatory data for 22 May will decide which temperature band this market settles in, using the day’s final “Absolute Daily Max” reading. The crowd has priced the market at 0% for a simple “Yes” outcome, which is consistent with the fact that the event has a fixed settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC and will only resolve once the Observatory finalises its daily extract.

For context, May in Hong Kong is already well into the warm season, with average daytime highs usually around 29°C and occasional surges into the low 30s. Historical records show that late-May heat can be more extreme: the Observatory’s ranking of May temperatures lists a monthly mean maximum as high as 32.5°C, with several other years above 31°C. That makes upper-band outcomes plausible when sunshine is strong and coastal breezes are weak, but the distribution still clusters around the low 30s rather than the mid-30s.

The main near-term drivers are the Hong Kong Observatory’s morning and midday updates, cloud cover, and whether any showers or onshore flow suppress the peak by a degree or two. Weather services currently point to a warm, unsettled late-May pattern, but the final reading depends on the exact daytime peak at the Observatory station, not citywide averages. Traders should watch for changes in the official forecast through the morning and early afternoon, as even small shifts in cloud or rain timing can move the highest temperature band.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.