Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 23?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature on 23 May 2026, with settlement depending on the finalised daily maximum reading in degrees Celsius. The market currently shows 0% probability, suggesting traders expect the actual temperature to fall outside whichever range this market's YES option represents. Without the specific temperature threshold defined in the market terms, the crowd's assessment reflects uncertainty about what constitutes the settlement criterion rather than certainty about the weather itself.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, though daily maxima can exceed 33°C during early-season heat waves. Historical Observatory data shows that May averages around 29–30°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 35°C or higher during particularly warm years. The 0% probability suggests the market's YES range sits either unusually high or unusually low relative to seasonal norms, making historical May records the primary reference point for calibrating expectations.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts as May 2026 approaches, particularly any advisories issued in late April regarding high-pressure systems or tropical air masses moving into the region. The Observatory publishes extended outlooks roughly two weeks ahead of the settlement date. Real-time factors—including the strength of the southwest monsoon, any tropical cyclone activity in nearby waters, and urban heat patterns—will drive daily temperature variation. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 23 May, after which the Observatory typically finalises its daily extract within days, though traders should confirm the exact publication timeline with the Observatory's data release schedule.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.