Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 25?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 25 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius. This single daily maximum will determine which temperature band resolves as correct, with settlement contingent on the Observatory's finalised data from their Daily Extract records.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28–32°C, though extremes occasionally push higher. Historical records show that daily maxima in late May have reached 33–35°C during particularly warm years, whilst cooler days remain in the upper 20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect an outcome outside the highest available temperature bracket, or uncertainty about which specific range will contain the day's peak. Comparable May dates from the Observatory's archives provide the baseline for assessing likelihood across different temperature bands.

Traders should monitor weather forecasts from late April onwards, as seasonal patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions become clearer closer to the date. The Southwest Monsoon typically influences Hong Kong's weather by late May, which can either suppress temperatures through cloud cover or elevate them through humidity and stagnant air masses. Any significant tropical cyclone activity or unusual pressure systems in the weeks preceding 25 May could shift temperature expectations materially. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts approximately two weeks in advance, offering the most reliable catalyst for probability shifts before settlement.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.