Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26?

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Market context

On 26 May 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's highest temperature in degrees Celsius, with settlement determined by which range bracket contains that reading. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature bands, indicating either incomplete pricing or data unavailability ahead of the settlement window.

Hong Kong's May climate sits at the threshold between spring and summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 28°C to 32°C during this period. The Observatory's records from previous May 26ths show considerable year-to-year variation depending on monsoon patterns and subtropical pressure systems. Traders should reference the Observatory's thirty-year climate normals, which indicate a mean maximum of approximately 29–30°C for late May, though individual days regularly deviate by 3–4°C in either direction. Extreme readings above 34°C or below 26°C on this date are historically uncommon but not unprecedented.

The key dependency for this market is the release of finalised temperature data from the Hong Kong Observatory's Daily Extract records, typically published within days of the observation date. Traders monitoring regional weather forecasts in late May 2026 should track tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific and the position of the South China Sea monsoon trough, both of which significantly influence daily maxima. The Observatory publishes extended forecasts roughly ten days in advance; any unusual weather systems or heat waves flagged in those forecasts would provide concrete catalysts for reassessing probability distributions across temperature bands.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 26? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.