Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27?

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Market context

The Hong Kong Observatory will record the highest temperature in Hong Kong on 27 May 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and finalised in their daily climate extract. This market resolves based on which temperature band contains that reading, with settlement dependent on official data publication from the Observatory's records.

Hong Kong's May temperatures typically range between 28°C and 34°C, though extremes occasionally breach these bounds. Historical data from the Observatory shows that late May often marks the transition into the pre-monsoon period, when heat and humidity intensify ahead of the summer season. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either uncertain about which specific range will occur or awaiting clearer seasonal forecasting models. Comparable May dates over the past decade provide the most reliable reference points for understanding typical thermal patterns and identifying outlier scenarios.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's extended forecast as May approaches, particularly any alerts regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 27 May, though final temperature data may not be published until the following day's climate extract is released. Any significant weather systems—tropical depressions, high-pressure systems, or unusual wind patterns—could shift outcomes materially from seasonal norms. The Observatory publishes preliminary readings within hours of measurement but reserves final adjustments for their official daily extract, so resolution timing remains a practical consideration for position management.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Hong Kong on May 27? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.