Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Istanbul's highest daily temperature on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Atatürk Airport (LTFM) by NOAA and recorded in degrees Celsius. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, requiring final temperature data from all daylight hours to be available before resolution.

Late May in Istanbul typically sees maximum temperatures between 26–28°C, with occasional peaks toward 30°C during warm spells. Historical data from the airport station shows that temperatures exceeding 32°C on this date are rare, occurring roughly once per decade. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the market's temperature thresholds to be set above what late-spring conditions normally deliver, or that the resolution mechanism itself presents technical barriers to settlement. Comparable May dates at LTFM over the past fifteen years have rarely breached 31°C, establishing a baseline against which any unusual heat would register.

Traders should monitor Turkish meteorological forecasts released in early May 2026, particularly any alerts for early-season heat waves affecting the Marmara region. Atmospheric patterns in late spring can shift rapidly; northwesterly flows typically keep coastal Istanbul cooler, whilst southerly winds from inland Anatolia drive temperatures upward. NOAA's data publication schedule and any potential gaps in hourly readings at the airport station could affect settlement timing. The specificity of the NOAA source and the requirement for metric conversion add procedural dependencies worth tracking as the date approaches.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Istanbul on May 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.