Highest temperature in London on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market concerns the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 13 August 2026, with settlement based on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect temperatures to fall outside all available resolution ranges, though this reflects uncertainty about which specific bands the market offers rather than certainty about the weather itself.

August temperatures at London City Airport typically range between 18°C and 26°C, with daily highs averaging around 23°C. Historical data from the past decade shows that extreme heat days exceeding 28°C occur occasionally but remain uncommon in mid-August, whilst readings below 15°C are rare. The current probability distribution implies the crowd has positioned against higher temperature brackets, possibly reflecting recent cooler summers or conservative expectations about 2026 conditions.

Traders should monitor long-range forecasts as August 2026 approaches, though these remain unreliable beyond two weeks. The specific reliance on Weather Underground's Daily Observations rather than Day High & Low summaries creates a technical dependency worth verifying—discrepancies between the two sources have occasionally affected weather market settlements. Any significant Atlantic weather patterns or heat dome developments in late July would shift expectations materially, as would updates to seasonal climate outlooks from the Met Office closer to the resolution date.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in London on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.