Highest temperature in London on May 28?

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Market context

The highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on 28 May 2026 will determine the settlement of this market. Historical data from the Met Office shows that late May temperatures in London typically range between 18–22°C, with occasional warm spells pushing into the mid-20s. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in an expectation that the temperature will fall below the lowest available range bracket, though this warrants scrutiny given the inherent variability of late-spring weather in the UK.

May temperatures at London City Airport have shown considerable year-to-year variation. Between 2015 and 2024, the highest daily temperatures on 28 May ranged from 16°C to 24°C, with an average around 19°C. The 2022 reading of 24°C and the 2018 reading of 23°C demonstrate that warm outcomes occur regularly enough to merit non-trivial probability allocation. The current crowd assessment appears to discount the realistic likelihood of typical late-May conditions materialising.

Traders should monitor the extended forecast for late May 2026 as the settlement date approaches. Atmospheric patterns in the preceding weeks—particularly the position of high-pressure systems over the British Isles and any warm continental air masses—will be decisive. Wunderground's historical data for London City Airport (EGLC station) provides the sole authoritative resolution source, making real-time access to that platform essential for settlement verification.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.