Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Madrid’s peak temperature is set by how the day develops at Barajas airport, where even a small shift in cloud cover, wind or a late-afternoon surge of dry inland air can move the maximum by a degree or two. For 2 August, the broad market backdrop is a hot Madrid summer: AccuWeather’s August guidance shows daily highs ranging from 81°F to 101°F, with an average high of 89°F, while other climate guides put typical August daytime peaks around 32°C to 31°C in the city.[1][3][2] The broader Spanish heat profile also supports elevated readings, with Madrid’s absolute August record at the city station listed as 40.7°C, underscoring that very high maxima are plausible in this part of the year.[12]

The market’s 0% YES price appears hard to reconcile with the seasonal setup, so the more relevant question is whether forecasts keep the day inside the mid-30s or push towards a hotter outlier. Traders should watch the late-run forecast updates from the Spanish state weather service and airport observations, because the settlement is based on the highest recorded temperature at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station on the day, not on the citywide average.[12] Reuters reported Spain’s first official heatwave of 2026 in June, and that kind of persistent subtropical ridge pattern can leave central Spain vulnerable to repeated hot spells if it reappears in early August.[15] If the runway weather and inland plume line up, the upper 30s remain the key risk; if not, the reading can settle a few degrees lower than the hottest modelled scenarios.[11]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on August 2?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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Which sports markets are available?

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Can I import form data and lineups?

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