Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Numerical weather models from AEMET and ECMWF project Madrid highs of 34–36°C on 12 July under stable high pressure and clear skies, suggesting the current 0% crowd-implied probability for the market’s lowest bracket is misaligned with forecasted conditions[1]. Historical context from early July 2026 shows Madrid experienced an intense heatwave with daytime temperatures reaching 42°C on 5–6 July, nearly 9°C above seasonal averages, before cooling slightly but remaining well above normal through 7 July[4]. Even the resolved market for 10 July 2026 assigned 100% probability to 36°C, reinforcing that temperatures in this period consistently exceed lower thresholds[3].

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, as settlement depends exclusively on the highest recorded temperature there on 12 July[1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in high-pressure stability or cloud cover, which could alter the 34–36°C range projected by current models[1]. Additionally, watch for official heatwave declarations from Spanish authorities, as the first official heatwave of 2026 was declared on 21 June with temperatures up to 40°C in Madrid, indicating a pattern of extreme heat continuing into July[5]. The first half of 2026 was Spain’s hottest ever recorded, with temperatures 1.6°C above normal, further supporting the likelihood of elevated highs on 12 July[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Madrid on July 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.