Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Manila's highest temperature on 17 August 2026 will be measured at Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station and resolved using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full daily high should be recorded before resolution.

August represents the height of Manila's southwest monsoon season, when the city typically experiences afternoon highs between 28–32°C, though readings occasionally exceed 33°C during particularly intense heat events. Historical data from the airport station shows considerable day-to-day variation during this month; the highest August temperatures on record at the location have reached the mid-34°C range, whilst cooler monsoon days can see highs drop to 27–28°C. The current 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a specific temperature threshold to be missed, though without visibility on which range is being priced, the assessment reflects either confidence in below-average heat or uncertainty about the exact settlement boundaries.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts in the weeks preceding mid-August, as these provide the most reliable guidance on monsoon intensity and potential heat surges. Tropical cyclone activity in the region during early-to-mid August could suppress temperatures through cloud cover and rainfall, whilst high-pressure systems would favour elevated readings. The airport station's elevation and proximity to Laguna de Bay also influence local microclimatic conditions, making site-specific historical comparisons more relevant than broader Metro Manila averages.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

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