Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Metro Manila is tracking toward its typical early-July thermal ceiling, with afternoon highs historically clustering between 31°C and 35°C at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport station[8]. The crowd-implied 0% probability for a “YES” outcome suggests the market expects the temperature to stay well below any extreme threshold, aligning with recent data showing a peak of 34.9°C (94.8°F) on 3 July 2026, just eight days prior[2]. While Metro Manila recorded a new all-time high of 38.8°C in April 2024, such extremes are anomalous for July, which sits outside the peak heat season of May[1][7]. The Philippines’ official record of 42.2°C occurred in Tuguegarao, not Manila, reinforcing that the airport station rarely breaches 36°C in mid-year[3][5].

Traders should monitor the PAGASA daily forecast and Wunderground’s real-time updates for the RPLL station, as cloud cover and monsoon onset can suppress temperatures rapidly[1]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 11 July 2026, meaning the highest temperature must be recorded before that cutoff; any late-afternoon spike after 12:00 UTC will not count[1]. No major weather announcements are currently expected to alter the baseline, but the transition into the wet season—typically beginning in June—increases the likelihood of rain-induced cooling[7]. Watch for any sudden shifts in the Intertropical Convergence Zone position, which could trigger unexpected cloudiness or downpours, though historical patterns suggest stable, warm conditions with limited deviation from the 32–34°C range[8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Manila on July 11?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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