Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25?

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Market context

Mexico City's weather on 25 May 2026 will be measured at Benito Juárez International Airport, where the highest temperature recorded throughout that day determines the settlement range. The airport station sits at 2,250 metres elevation in the Valley of Mexico, a geography that moderates extremes compared to lower-altitude Mexican cities.

Historical data from May at this station shows typical highs between 26–28°C, with occasional peaks near 30°C during particularly dry years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect the temperature to fall outside the highest range bracket offered. May falls within Mexico City's dry season, when afternoon temperatures tend toward their seasonal maximum before the onset of summer rains in June. Weather Underground's historical records for the airport station provide consistent measurement methodology across years, allowing comparison with May temperatures from 2015–2025.

Traders should monitor atmospheric pressure patterns and upper-level wind anomalies in late April and early May 2026, as these drive whether warm air masses penetrate the high-altitude basin. El Niño or La Niña conditions active during spring 2026 will influence regional moisture and temperature trajectories. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 25 May, meaning the full calendar day's maximum must be recorded and finalised on Weather Underground before resolution occurs. Any unusual heat dome or blocking pattern over northern Mexico in the weeks preceding the date would shift probability substantially.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Mexico City on May 25? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.