Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport typically records peak daily temperatures in the 88–92°F range during mid-August, with the historical median high for 13 August standing at approximately 90°F. The airport's observation station, positioned in an urban environment with minimal shade, tends to register readings slightly elevated above residential areas across the city. Humidity levels during this period routinely exceed 70%, though this affects the "feels like" metric rather than the actual recorded temperature used for settlement.

The 0% crowd probability reflects either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal trading activity on this particular date. Historical August data from Weather Underground shows that Miami rarely experiences temperature swings exceeding 5°F within a single day during this season, making outlier readings—either substantially above 95°F or below 85°F—statistically unlikely. The distinction between the Daily Observations table and the Day High & Low summary section is material; traders should verify which source Weather Underground prioritises when discrepancies emerge, as this has occasionally affected settlement outcomes on weather markets.

Traders monitoring this market should track the Atlantic hurricane season's progression, as tropical systems can suppress afternoon highs through cloud cover and convective activity. The National Hurricane Center's forecasts for early-to-mid August 2026 will provide the clearest signal for potential temperature deviations from seasonal norms. Additionally, any equipment maintenance or relocation of the Miami airport observation station prior to settlement could alter baseline readings.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Miami on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.