Highest temperature in Miami on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami International Airport’s temperature on 6 August was expected to settle in the high-80s Fahrenheit band, with market pricing heavily concentrated in **88–89°F** and **86–87°F**. That is consistent with the typical August pattern in Miami, where AccuWeather’s monthly outlook shows recent daily highs clustering around 88–89°F, while WeatherSpark and other climate summaries place late-summer averages in roughly the same range.[1][2][12]

The current **0% YES** implies the crowd sees the listed settlement range as effectively a dead heat only if the day’s highest reading lands outside the dominant bins, but the comparable-weather backdrop does not support a drastic move without an unusual setup. Extreme Weather Watch’s 2026 Miami history shows nearby early-August highs already running from the low-90s down to the low-90s with rain, which is exactly the kind of pattern that can cap the maximum rather than push it into the mid-90s.[3] In practical terms, traders should treat the market as a read on whether Miami gets a routine humid afternoon peak, or whether cloud cover and showers hold the official high down to the low- to mid-80s.

The main catalysts are the actual Weather Underground daily observations at KMIA, especially the afternoon and early-evening entries that determine the day’s recorded maximum rather than the summary “Day High & Low” figure.[2] The National Weather Service’s daily climate reporting for Miami, together with short-range forecast updates, is the other key dependency, because a passing rain band or sustained onshore flow can materially alter the final observed high even when model guidance looks stable.[4][14] Hurricane-season background also matters in August, since convective coverage can change quickly, but there is no evidence in the supplied sources of a specific storm trigger for this date.[10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Miami on August 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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