Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s August temperature profile is firmly in late-summer territory, with a long-run average high around 24–25°C and a record August peak of 37°C, so a zero-price for a “yes” outcome implies the market is treating a very warm day as unlikely rather than impossible.[1][15] The settlement rule matters: this market resolves off the *Daily Observations* table on Weather Underground, not the summary “Day High & Low”, so traders should watch the highest single reading in the station log rather than the headline daily maximum.[3]

Historical August data show that Munich can produce sharp excursions above average, but they are concentrated in a small number of heatwave years, notably 2003, when the month’s record high was set.[1][4] More typical August maxima sit in the mid-20s Celsius, and comparable weather sites also cluster the month’s average high near 24°C, which means outcomes in the 20s remain the base case while the low-30s require a stronger warm spell than usual.[9][16]

The main catalyst for the final printed value is the intra-day weather pattern at Munich Airport: sunshine, wind direction and any convective showers can shift the top reading by several degrees during the observation window, even if the day starts cool. Weather Underground’s history page is the key source for resolution, so traders should focus on whether the day’s hourly progression produces a brief spike above the surrounding forecast range rather than on the broader monthly climatology.[3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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