Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport's temperature readings on 16 August will determine this market's resolution, with the highest recorded value in the Daily Observations table at Wunderground serving as the definitive source. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning afternoon temperature spikes after 12:00 cannot influence the outcome.

Historical August temperatures at Munich Airport show that exceeding 35°C on any given day occurs in roughly 5–10% of years, with the station's all-time August high standing at 37.6°C. The 1% crowd probability suggests traders expect conditions well below typical summer peaks for that date. August 16 falls mid-month when continental European heat patterns are established; recent decades show increasing frequency of days surpassing 30°C during this window, though single-day extremes remain relatively rare without specific high-pressure systems anchored over Bavaria.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August onwards, particularly extended-range models from Météo-France and the German DWD that typically gain accuracy within 10 days of the target date. Any significant heat dome tracking northward from the Mediterranean or North Africa in early-to-mid August would be the primary catalyst shifting probabilities upward. Local Munich news outlets and aviation weather bulletins will carry official airport observations; discrepancies between summary highs and the granular Daily Observations table have historically been minor, but the market's explicit resolution hierarchy favours the latter source.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 16?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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