Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich's peak temperature on 21 August 2026 will be measured at Munich Airport Station using Weather Underground's Daily Observations table, with resolution based on the highest recorded reading in Celsius rather than summary figures.

August temperatures in Munich typically range between 17–27°C, though heat waves can push readings into the low 30s. Historical data from the past decade shows that mid-to-late August rarely exceeds 30°C at the airport station, with most years settling in the 24–28°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders expect a notably cool day relative to seasonal norms, or that the market reflects uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket will resolve. Comparable August days at Munich Airport have occasionally reached 29–31°C during European heat events, but sustained temperatures above 32°C remain uncommon for this period and location.

Traders should monitor European weather patterns from mid-August 2026, particularly high-pressure systems moving across central Europe that could drive temperatures upward. The specific resolution source—Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Munich Airport—differs from casual weather summaries, meaning the exact measurement methodology matters. Any significant heat dome or Atlantic ridge positioning in late summer could shift outcomes materially. Current crowd sentiment at 0% YES suggests either confidence in below-average conditions or limited engagement with the market; incoming weather forecasts from early August onwards will be the primary catalyst for probability shifts.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on August 21?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

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