Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 6 July 2026, with current market odds implying a 0% chance of the temperature exceeding the highest bracket. Historical data for Munich in early July shows daily highs typically rising from 72°F to 75°F (22°C to 24°C), rarely dipping below 61°F (16°C) or soaring past 87°F (31°C)[4]. Current observations at 08:00 BST recorded 19°C with sunny intervals, while afternoon forecasts suggest temperatures climbing to 74°F (24°C) by 3 pm[1][5]. These comparable cases frame the 0% probability as a reflection of the market’s expectation that the day will not breach the extreme upper threshold, consistent with typical seasonal patterns rather than an anomaly.

Traders should monitor real-time updates from Wunderground, the official resolution source, for any sudden spikes in temperature beyond the forecasted 24°C peak[2]. Key catalysts include unexpected weather shifts, such as a heatwave or rapid pressure changes, which could alter the day’s maximum reading before the noon settlement cutoff[3]. Recent forecasts indicate stable sunny conditions with no immediate precipitation, but any deviation from the predicted 74°F (24°C) high would be critical for the market outcome[5]. While volume remains thin and the market sits at 33.5% for a 25°C high, the noon resolution window demands close attention to live data feeds to capture any late-breaking temperature surges[2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.