Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the daily peak temperature recorded at Munich Airport on 9 July 2026, which will determine the outcome of a prediction market currently pricing a 28°C hit at zero per cent. Historical data shows Munich’s July highs typically range between 21°C and 32°C, with daily averages near 25°C and rare extremes exceeding 37°C[1][3]. The current 0% probability suggests the market believes a 28°C bracket is unlikely, yet this contradicts the fact that 28°C sits well within the normal summer range for the region, where highs frequently reach 27–30°C[2][7].

Traders should monitor official weather bulletins from the German Meteorological Service (DWD) and real-time updates from Wunderground, the designated resolution source, as cloud cover and wind patterns on 9 July could shift the peak temperature significantly[8][10]. A sudden heatwave, similar to the record 41.3°C observed across Germany in June 2026, could push Munich’s high well above 28°C, though such events remain statistically rare for early July[5]. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 9 July, meaning any late-morning temperature spike will be captured; watch for forecast revisions from Met Office and BBC Weather, which currently predict 25–27°C for the day[7][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in Munich on July 9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.