Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to identify the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 13 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning final temperature readings will be captured through the morning hours in New York time.

New York's August temperatures typically range between 75°F and 88°F, though heat waves can push daily highs into the low 90s. Historical data from LaGuardia shows that temperatures exceeding 95°F occur roughly once every three to five years during August, whilst readings above 90°F are common. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in a specific temperature threshold that historical August patterns make unlikely, though the exact range boundaries remain unclear from the market framing provided.

The primary variable affecting this outcome is the Atlantic hurricane season activity and upper-level atmospheric patterns in early August 2026. Tropical systems tracking northward can suppress temperatures through cloud cover and precipitation, whilst high-pressure systems anchored over the Northeast typically drive the most extreme heat. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, issued in July 2026, will provide initial guidance on whether conditions favour above-normal or near-normal temperatures for that specific date. Traders should monitor any developing tropical threats in late July, as these represent the most significant catalyst for temperature suppression during what would otherwise be peak summer heat season.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.