Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market seeks to establish the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 17 August 2026, with resolution determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, meaning the full day's temperature readings will be available before resolution.

New York's August heat patterns show considerable year-to-year variation. The historical record for 17 August at LaGuardia stands at 89°F, set in 1994, though August typically sees daily highs in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either an expectation of below-average temperatures or uncertainty about the specific resolution mechanics. Comparable August dates at the airport have produced highs ranging from 72°F to 91°F across recent decades, indicating substantial seasonal volatility that should inform range selection.

Traders monitoring this market should track Atlantic hurricane activity and upper-atmosphere patterns as August 2026 approaches, as tropical systems can suppress temperatures whilst high-pressure systems drive them upward. The National Weather Service's extended forecasts, typically issued 10–14 days ahead, will provide the most reliable directional signals. Verification of Weather Underground's Daily Observations table methodology against other official sources—including NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information—remains prudent given the explicit resolution source specification.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.